This month’s freight market update reflects a market still in adjustment following the Lunar New Year, with softer conditions evident across many trade lanes. Freight markets are subdued, carriers continue to manage capacity, and pricing remains under pressure as demand gradually returns.
At the same time, a sharp escalation in the Middle East has rapidly changed the risk picture for shipping and airfreight. With restrictions and rerouting now impacting key corridors (including Suez/Red Sea and Gulf air hubs), Australian and New Zealand shippers should expect flow-on effects to transit times, equipment positioning, surcharges and capacity availability over the weeks ahead.
TL;DR –Global Freight Market Update March 2026
- Ocean rates: Drewry WCI down again to US$1,919/40ft, sixth straight weekly decline.
- Capacity: Blank sailings elevated (global cancellations ~11% over weeks 9 -13; Transpac dominates).
- Reliability: Schedule performance remains uneven (global reliability ~47% with 4.4-day late arrivals).
- Middle East: A major escalation is driving route changes, insurance constraints, and air hub disruption – expect delays, volatility, and higher risk costs.
- AU/NZ: China – AU/NZ indices softened mid-Feb; carriers pushing targeted March rate restorations; new MSC Eagle adds routing options.
Freight Market Update – Middle East Disruption
Market still adjusting post-LNY as Middle East shocks reshape global networks.
What AU/NZ Shippers Need to Know
A significant escalation has triggered fresh disruption across Middle East trade and transit corridors:
- Strait of Hormuz risk has spiked, with credible threats of closure and heightened security concerns for vessels in/near the Gulf.
- Major carriers have paused or rerouted services away from Suez/Red Sea and are diverting around the Cape of Good Hope in response to the deteriorating security environment.
- War risk insurance has tightened, with reports of reduced/withdrawn cover and sharply higher premiums across parts of the Gulf, adding cost and operational friction.
- Airfreight has been disrupted by airspace restrictions and flight suspensions/limited operations at key Middle East hubs (including the Dubai/Abu Dhabi/Doha corridors), impacting uplift, transit reliability, and backlogs. Airfreight capacity of the Asia – Middle East – Europe corridor fell by 26% over the weekend, and direct freight increased by 13% in the same period. (The Loadstar)
- Brent crude rose to $80 a barrel on Monday. With around 20% of jet fuel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the reported closure of Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, a sustained fuel price increase may raise airline operating costs.
What this means for Australian & New Zealand shippers
- Longer and less predictable transit times on Asia–Europe and Europe–APAC routings as carriers divert services and rebalance networks.
- Volatility in capacity and surcharges (risk-related, contingency and congestion effects) as carriers manage exposure and equipment positioning.
- Airfreight bottlenecks for time-critical cargo that typically transits Middle East hubs—expect rollovers, rebookings and higher spot pricing on constrained days.
Practical actions
- Build buffer into ETAs for any cargo touching Europe/Med–APAC networks.
- Split critical loads across carriers/routings (don’t rely on a single transit hub).
- Reconfirm uplift and cut-offs 24–48 hours before freight handover for air.
- Expect rapid changes—ask us to validate routings and risk exposure before booking.
Rates & Services
Global Ocean Rates
Drewry World Container Index (WCI): down 1% to US$1,919 per 40ft, marking the sixth consecutive weekly decline, led by softening in the Transpacific and Asia – Europe trades.
Transpacific Spot Rates
- Shanghai → Los Angeles: US$2,219/FEU (stable)
- Shanghai → New York: US$2,782/FEU (↓ ~1%)
Capacity management is aggressive, with 31 blank sailings announced next week across Transpacific East/West Coast lanes. Drewry expects further near-term softening.
Asia – Europe Spot Rates
- Shanghai → Rotterdam: US$2,109/FEU (↓ ~1%)
- Shanghai → Genoa: US$2,895/FEU (↓ ~2%)
8 blank sailings scheduled next week amid ongoing post-LNY volatility.
Intra-Asia Spot Rates
Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI): essentially flat at US$555/40ft, ~10% lower YoY, pointing to sustained margin pressure.
Trade Outlook
Spot rates remain subdued and are not following typical LNY patterns. A modest rebound is possible as production normalises and backlogs rebuild, but blank sailings remain the key stabiliser.
For Australia & New Zealand
Pricing and carrier actions
- CCFI (Australia/NZ): early-Feb readings down ~5.2%, signalling easing spot rates ex-Shanghai post-LNY.
- MSC: southbound rate restoration from North Asia → Australia: +US$300/TEU effective proforma sailing 1 March.
- ANL: rate restoration on SEA/ISC/Middle East → Australia effective 1 March:
- US$50 per 20’ (dry & reefer)
- US$100 per 40’ (dry & reefer)
What This Means for You
This is a buyer-friendlier window on many lanes, but it’s fragile. Lock in space for critical cargo early and don’t assume schedule recovery equals reliability.
Global Schedule Reliability & Port Congestion
Xeneta’s latest view of the top 12 carriers’ direct services shows:
- Global schedule reliability: 47.1%
- Average delays: late vessels 4.4 days; all vessels 2.3 days
- Weakest lane: Asia → North Europe (<40% reliability)
Port Congestion Hotspots
Africa remains the largest pressure zone. Asia-Pacific is broadly functional but uneven (high yard density in some China terminals). Europe is generally stable but managing weather and modal constraints.
What This Means for You
Plan for variability. Even when “congestion looks normal,” berth windows and downstream landside handoffs can still move quickly.
Capacity Management and Blank Sailings
- Over weeks 9 -13 (23 February -b29 Mar): 76 blank sailings from ~705 departures (~11%).
- Most cancellations: Transpacific eastbound (~61%), then Asia–Europe/Med (~24%), then Transatlantic westbound (~16%).
- Australia: ~9.5% cancellation rate across the Lunar New Year adjustment window.
What This Means for You
Capacity is being actively throttled. If you have time-sensitive cargo, treat space as a planning exercise – not a last-minute purchase.
Equipment
As Australia enters peak reefer season, exporters (hay, grain and other perishables) continue to report shortages across 20GP, 20RF, 20FQ and 40RF equipment.
What this means for you
If you’re exporting temperature-sensitive or agricultural cargo, treat equipment as the critical path—book early and keep flexibility on pack dates and cut-offs.
Sustainability
- The BBNJ Agreement has entered into force, adding a stronger high-seas governance layer that may influence future routing and environmental assessment expectations.
- Carriers continue to invest in dual-fuel and alternative-fuel-capable vessels despite uneven regulatory momentum.
- IMO marine litter strategy updates remain in play ahead of MEPC discussions in April.
What this means for you:
Compliance expectations are trending upward. If your customers are asking for emissions transparency, now is the time to strengthen measurement and reporting across your freight.
Air Freight Market Update
Global
Rates rose ~2% WoW to US$2.45/kg and sit ~7% above last year, while tonnage fell ~7% WoW as seasonal peaks eased.
Australia
Operations are generally stable with good service levels; however, Middle East airspace restrictions and hub disruptions are material variables for anything transiting the region. (Emirates)
What This Means for You:
If your airfreight normally routes via Gulf hubs, expect disruption risk to remain elevated. Build redundancy (alternate airlines / alternate transit hubs) and secure uplift early.
Terminals & Ports
Australia
- Patrick: Brisbane/Fremantle/Sydney/Melbourne ~1–2 days
- DP World: Brisbane/Fremantle/Sydney/Melbourne ~1–2 days
- VICT: Melbourne ~0.5 day
- FACT Adelaide: ~1–2 days
- AAT: minimal delays (Brisbane/Port Kembla/Melbourne)
New Zealand
Auckland / Tauranga / Napier / Lyttleton: ~2–3 days
Notable AU Developments
- Hutchison Ports (Sydney & Brisbane): notice of landside/ancillary charge increases effective 20 April 2026 (increases vary by fee type).
- Port of Melbourne: January throughput down YoY with signs of recovery late month.
- East–West rail line SA: flooding-related closure impacts intermodal flows (short-term).
What this means for you
Even when vessel schedules stabilise, landside cost and appointment constraints can drive total lead time. Budget for terminal and cartage variability, not just freight rate movement.
Bottom line
Global freight markets remain in adjustment following Chinese New Year, with softer demand, controlled capacity and subdued spot pricing defining the near-term landscape. At the same time, the escalation in the Middle East has reintroduced a layer of operational risk that sits outside normal seasonal patterns.
For informed operators, the issue is not whether rates are up or down this week — it is how network disruption, rerouting decisions, insurance constraints and equipment imbalances ripple through global systems over time.
If Red Sea and Gulf instability persists, the likely impacts are structural rather than immediate:
- Extended voyage durations on key east–west corridors as carriers avoid high-risk zones
- Equipment repositioning delays, tightening container availability in export markets such as Australia and New Zealand
- Incremental cost layers (risk premiums, fuel adjustments, contingency surcharges) that can offset softer base freight rates
- Network variability as transhipment hubs absorb diverted volumes
For Australian and New Zealand importers and exporters, means volatility may show up less in headline rates and more in reliability, equipment access, and all-in landed cost. The market is not in crisis – but it is sensitive.
As we move deeper into 2026, attention remains on how quickly demand normalises post-holiday, whether capacity discipline holds, and how sustained geopolitical tension reshapes global trade corridors. In this environment, planning depth and routing flexibility remain more valuable than short-term rate movements. If you’d like Magellan to sanity-check your routings, ETAs, or contingency options for the next 4–6 weeks, reach out to your Client Services team AUS 1800 595 463 or NZ (09) 974 4818 – we’ll help you plan through the uncertainty.
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About David Thatcher: David, founder of Magellan Logistics, has built a global career in freight forwarding. With international leadership experience and Harvard training, he remains committed to client needs and nurturing his team.
Sources: With thanks to the Freight and Trade Alliance for their freight market update.
