Freight Market Update

TL;DR: Rates: Global Freight Market Update November 2025: Drewry WCI ↑3% WoW to US$1,746/FEU; Transpac & Asia–EU spot firmed after mid-Oct GRIs; new GRIs flagged for 1 & 15 Nov; Australia: China→AU quotes lifted (SCFI Wk42 US$2,318/FEU, +6%); multiple 1 Nov rate restorations announced; Reliability: Global on-time still mid-60s%; typhoons in Asia and strikes in North Europe disrupting schedules; US: USTR port fees due 14 Oct are already shifting port calls and redeployments; import volumes forecast to soften into Q4; Cancellations: ~8% of sailings blanked Wks 44–48; Oct saw a spike in blankings, Nov capacity slightly higher; Airfreight: Rebound post-holidays led by Asia Pacific; rates nudging up on major lanes; Do now: Book early around Nov GRIs, build buffers ex-South China & North Europe, re-screen US-exposed routings, and forward-plan equipment.

Welcome to our latest freight market update. Ocean rates are edging up after a long decline, reliability remains mixed amid weather and labour headwinds, and policy shifts are reshaping US-linked trades. Below you’ll find concise rate movements, schedule reliability, congestion hotspots, policy developments and practical actions to keep your supply chain moving.

Rates & Services

Global Ocean Rates

Drewry WCI: US$1,746/FEU (+3% WoW), second weekly rise after a 17-week slide.
Transpac spot: SHA→LAX US$2,290/FEU (+4%); SHA→NY US$3,420/FEU (+6%). GRIs mid-Oct firmed rates; further GRIs planned 1 & 15 Nov.
Asia–Europe spot: SHA→RTM US$1,736/FEU (+4%); SHA→GOA US$1,855/FEU (+2%). New FAKs from 1 Nov: US$2,600–2,700/FEU.
Intra-Asia: Drewry IACI US$611/FEU (+5%); still -9% YoY; broadly stable near-term.

Australia

China→AU spot quotes lifted after weeks of easing: SCFI Wk42 US$2,318/FEU (+6%); widening spread between carriers. Ongoing congestion and container shortages are adding upward pressure.
Rate restorations (effective 1 Nov):
- ANL:
  - NE Asia→AU: US$500/20’, US$1,000/40’
  - SE Asia/ISC/ME→AU: US$200/20’, US$400/40’
  - N&E Asia→NZ: US$300/TEU, US$600/FEU (dry & reefer)
- COSCO: N&E Asia→AU and SE Asia→AU: US$500/TEU, US$1,000/FEU
- MSC: China/HK/JP/KR/TW→AU & NZ: US$300/TEU

Booking & Detention Updates

Maersk (AU/NZ): From 1 Dec 2025, “detention” will accrue on empties from removal date until return on cancelled bookings (no free time applied). Local per diems published under Demurrage & Detention.

Service updates

ANL WestPac: Frequency uplift (fortnightly for most ports) with Scion Mafada (1,103 TEU) joining Baldur & Sofrana Surville; Brisbane ETA 25 Nov.
PAX Loop 1 temporarily filled by The Whale Shark (larger vessel).

What this means for you

Expect Nov GRIs/FAKs to ripple into Asia–AU and Asia–EU bookings.
Lock allocations early, especially reefers and time-sensitive SKUs.
Check carrier-specific detention rules before ordering empties.

Trade Outlook

Global

2025 trade is outperforming on AI-related goods, North American front-loading, and resilient South-South flows; WTO 2025 upgrade to 2.4% merchandise growth, but 2026 outlook trimmed (0.5%).
UNCTAD flags a 2026 slowdown: Red Sea reroutes, volatile rates, Suez traffic ~70% below 2023, ton-miles +6%, emissions up, limited alt-fuel readiness.

Australia

Transition from public-led to private-demand growth continues; RBA cautious.
Commodities firmed (gold leading; copper up on better PMIs; iron ore ~US$97/t).
Exports steady post-cotton; strong summer crop outlook; higher-value exports resilient despite tariff noise.
Imports flat across Asia–Oceania amid weather-linked omissions; modest reliability gains at top carriers; some equipment pressure in N & S China.

What this means for you

Build scenario plans for 2026 demand softness; prioritise SKUs exposed to tariff volatility.
Hedge lead times on lanes still detouring the Red Sea and consider inventory staging in AU/NZ.

ABF Cargo Reporting (September 2025)

Sea cargo reports: 669k (≈ -30% YoY).
Air cargo reports: 13.4m (flat YoY).
Total: 14.1m (≈ -2% YoY).

Port Congestion (Selected Hotspots)

Asia: Shekou 4–5d, Yantian 5–7d, Nansha 3–4d, HK 2–2.5d, Keelung 1–2d (closed 22–23 Oct high swell), Qingdao 2–5d, SHA/NGB(Yangshan) 1–2d.
SE Asia: Singapore 18h (Gemini), 36h (others); Busan ~12h, PNIT ~30h.
AU: Sydney 12–72h, Brisbane 12–48h, Fremantle 12–24h.

What this means for you

Stagger ETDs/ETA windows, prioritise earliest berthing terminals, and pre-book feeder connections where possible.

Cancellations (Blank Sailings)

Global (wks 44–48)

8% (58/716) blanked; Asia–EU/Med 43%, EB Transpac 40%.
October: 93 blankings cut capacity ~7% MoM; November: capacity +8% expected, blankings ~53.
Rates ticked up 3% WoW (23 Oct) on Transpac and Asia–EU/Med.

Australia

18/225 blanked this month (~8%), in line with last month; still above Sep’s 4%.

What this means for you

Use shorter terms, secure space early around 1 & 15 Nov GRIs, and keep backup sailings on hold.

Geopolitics – Supply Chain Watch

US–China tensions: Tariffs, tech controls, and security concerns pushing carriers to reassess routings, premiums and port calls.
Poland–Belarus: Temporary closure in Sep disrupted China–EU rail (130+ trains). Border re-opened, but vulnerability remains.
Gaza ceasefire: Holding but fragile; any reversal risks broader regional impacts.

What this means for you

Avoid single-lane dependency into/out of US & EU; line up alt gateways and check insurance clauses for war-risk surcharges.

Red Sea Update

SCA revenue & transits down sharply; outreach to carriers to rebuild flows.
Security incidents continue (e.g., Clipper strike and hostage incident; MV Minervagracht fatality).
Most lines remain cautious on full Suez resumption.

What this means for you

Keep Cape of Good Hope routings in play; maintain buffer days; confirm convoy/protection arrangements when transiting.

US Freight Market Update

USTR fees (from 14 Oct): Rapid fall in Chinese-built ship calls at LA; fee schedule escalates through 2028.
US import outlook: Major ports forecast <2m TEU/month for remainder of 2025 after front-loading.
FMC shutdown: Agreement filings & renewals delayed during federal closure; some agencies on limited ops.
Tariffs on cranes: Port Freeport prepaid US$7.5m duties to avoid higher future levy.

What this means for you

Expect service rotations/blankings on Transpac; build Q4–Q1 buffers.
Add regulatory pass-through language to contracts; watch fee collections and any deferrals.

Competitive Landscape

Legal & regulatory actions in the US and Brazil highlight ongoing D&D disputes and terminal auction scrutiny.
Smaller shippers filing claims underscores the need for compliant fumigation/docs (EcoBamboo case).

What this means for you

Tighten documentation governance (treatments, certificates) and keep audit trails for any D&D challenges.

Sustainability & Policy

IMO NZF adoption delayed 1 year; debate continues on global carbon pricing, limits and fuel standards (entry-into-force timing pushed).
Green corridors: Melbourne–Shanghai link progresses; 62 corridors globally but scale-up constrained by cost/incentives.
Seafarer training: New interim guidance for alt fuels feeding into future STCW.
Maersk retrofits: ~2,500 projects by 2027 to cut emissions and lift capacity/efficiency.
Port climate risk: ~90% of major ports face hazards; immediate resilience measures urged.

What this means for you

The delay eases near-term cost pressure, but plan for NZF-aligned compliance (well-to-wake data, fuel intensity) over the medium term.

Equipment

AU exporters still face tight supply—20GP, 20RF, 20FQ, 40RF most constrained.

What this means for you

Place early equipment holds, allow longer pre-carriage windows, and consider alt container types where viable.

Rail & Intermodal

WA Kwinana upgrades: Tenders open for rail connections/duplication and crossing replacement to support Westport.
Patrick Sydney AutoRail & other AU rail/intermodal initiatives continue to relieve landside bottlenecks (see prior update for details).

What this means for you

Expect gradual improvements in landsid e flow, lower truck dependence and better ECP turn times into 2026.

Air Freight Market Update

Global

Market: Week 42 global tonnages +6% WoW; Asia Pacific +14% post-holidays; average rate US$2.48/kg (+3% WoW, -4% YoY).
Lanes: APAC→US volumes +17% WoW (China +24%, HK +22%, TW +24%, KR +96%); APAC→EU +14%; India→US +13% WoW ahead of Diwali.
Forecast: Airbus projects 3.3% CAGR to 2045; freighter fleet to 3,420 (significant conversions).

What this means for you

Lock peak uplift early (Nov/Dec), consider deferred products where transit allows, and align with partners on IATA ONE Record readiness (from 1 Jan 2026 preferred standard).

Local Airfreight

Perth Airport Master Plan 2026 (Prelim): Jobs 27.3k→75.4k by 2046; freight 138k→269k t; new runway/terminal expansions; Net Zero 2032.
Cathay Cargo: +13% YoY Aug tonnage; new freighter to Madrid; Oceania lithium battery flows rising.
Avalon VIC: A$8m freight centre; capacity to 100k t; 24-hour screening-ready.
Qantas Freight: New fortnightly Perth–IOT service (737-800F → A321P2F in 2026).

What this means for you

More airport choice and time-definite options for VIC/WA; explore new routings for sensitive cargo (batteries, pharma).

Terminals & Ports

Global

LA Pier 500 proposal: New 200-acre terminal to handle 23k TEU ships (10-year horizon).
DP World × PayPal: Partnership on digital cross-border payments.
ICTSI: Durban Pier 2 concession upheld; Subic Bay extension (US$130m) to 1m TEU.
Greece: US$680m island port upgrades; shore power at 12 ports by 2029.
Brazil (Santos): DP World–Hapag-Lloyd 10-year deal; quay extension to 1.7m TEU.
Chittagong: 70% service tariff rise drawing carrier backlash.
Italy: Genoa Gaza-related strikes disrupted port access.

Australia

Darwin Port 30-year Master Plan: Staged upgrades across container, bulk and cruise.
Port of Brisbane: 12-month autonomous container transfer research (low/zero-emission focus).
Fremantle (Kwinana Bulk): A$91m clinker circuit upgrade; capacity & environmental improvements.
Broome (KMSB): Gudali Express live exports streamlined; animal welfare & turnaround gains.
Patrick Sydney: Order for 14 hybrid AutoStrads (delivery late 2026).
Terminal Access Charges: Increases reported at all terminals.
Fremantle Ports Sustainability Approach: Ten priority ESG topics set; reporting ramping into FY25/26.
TasPorts × Strait Link: Burnie 30-year lease framework.
Flinders (FACT): A$390m upgrade—two Super Post-Panamax cranes, berth extension, dual-366m operations.

Terminal delays snapshot (AU/NZ)

Patrick: BNE/FRE/SYD/MEL ~1–2 days.
DP World: BNE/FRE/SYD/MEL ~1–2 days (BNE outages noted).
VICT (MEL): ~0.5 day.
FACT (ADL): ~1–2 days.
AAT: BNE/PK/MEL sites minimal delays.
NZ: AKL & TRG ~2–3 days (alt view: minimal 0.5–1 day when weather permits); NPE/LYT ~1–2 days.

What this means for you

Expect variable windows by terminal; plan for last-mile flexibility (rail where available) and monitor TAC updates.

Need help prioritising bookings?

We can secure space around the 1 & 15 Nov GRIs, forward-plan equipment, and map alternatives.

Talk to Magellan’s team for a lane-by-lane plan that protects your cost and lead times.

Magellan Logistics provides freight and logistics services to all industries, including sea freight, air freight, customs clearance, and a digital freight portal, offering 24/7 visibility of all your shipments. Keeping customers informed about changing market conditions is crucial to our approach.

Our dedicated and professional team would be delighted to assist your business. If you have questions about the freight market update, please get in touch with one of our freight specialists or call us at AUS 1800 595 463 or NZ (09) 974 4818.

_________

About David Thatcher: David, founder of Magellan Logistics, has built a global career in freight forwarding. With international leadership experience and Harvard training, he remains committed to client needs and nurturing his team.

Sources: With thanks to the Freight and Trade Alliance for their freight market update.