TL;DR: Global Freight Market Update February 2026:
- Rates: Global container rates eased for a second week post-Lunar New Year, led by declines on Transpacific and Asia–Europe lanes. Expect further softening near term as demand normalises.
- Reliability: Schedule reliability remains under pressure, with delays persisting across key hotspots (West Africa, Northern Europe and major China gateways) due to congestion and weather disruption.
- Capacity: Carriers are actively managing supply through increased blank sailings. Any broader return to Suez routing could release additional capacity back into the market and weigh on rates.
- AU/NZ: China–Australia pricing has held early January, but carrier actions (surcharges and attempted rate restorations) signal a cautious reset into February. New/expanded services are also increasing options on key corridors.
- Airfreight: Conditions into Australia are stable with generally good space availability. Global rates ticked up slightly, but remain below last year on major lanes.
- Geopolitics: Risk remains elevated (Black Sea, Middle East/Red Sea, Taiwan Strait, Caribbean), but expanded vessel supply is currently offsetting upward rate pressure.
- What to do: Lock in bookings early around service changes, plan for blank sailings and longer lead times, build contingency routing into critical shipments, and review landed-cost exposure as rates soften and surcharges shift.
Freight Market Update
Global freight markets have entered a recalibration phase following the Chinese New Year peak, with demand softening across key East–West trade lanes. Container freight rates are declining for a second consecutive week, while carriers adjust capacity to prevent sharper market corrections. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty, evolving Red Sea dynamics, and regulatory pressure continue to shape carrier behaviour and service reliability.
This freight market update outlines the latest developments across global and Australian ocean freight, airfreight, trade conditions, port congestion, sustainability, and geopolitical risk—and what they mean for Australian importers and exporters.
Rates & Services
Global Ocean Rates
The Drewry World Container Index fell 10% this week to US$2,212 per 40ft container, marking a second straight weekly decline. The fall reflects softer post-Lunar New Year demand, particularly on the Transpacific and Asia–Europe lanes.
Transpacific Spot Rates
- Shanghai → Los Angeles: US$2,546/FEU (↓12%)
- Shanghai → New York: US$3,191/FEU (↓11%)
Rates softened for a second week, with carriers increasing blank sailings to manage declining demand. Further easing is expected in the coming weeks.
Intra-Asia
Intra-Asia rates edged down 1% to US$661 per 40ft container, remaining comparatively stable due to disciplined capacity management.
What this means for you
Global rate declines are creating near-term pricing relief, but volatility remains. Shippers should expect further easing through February, balanced against ongoing service adjustments and blank sailings.
Australia
Carrier pricing actions continue as the China–Australia market transitions through the Lunar New Year period.
- Shanghai–Sydney rates for Weeks 1–2 held at around US$2,692/FEU, slightly above late-2025 levels.
- From 1 February, ANL will:
- Update the North East Asia–Australia Peak Season Surcharge to US$150/TEU and US$300/FEU (contracted cargo only).
- Attempt a rate restoration of US$200/TEU and US$400/FEU on shipments from South East Asia, the Indian Subcontinent and the Middle East Gulf.
What this means for you
Early-year stability is giving way to a market reset. Pricing remains fluid, and further adjustments are likely as post-holiday demand becomes clearer.
Services & Network Developments
- Maersk OC1 slots to CMA CGM: Additional space offered ahead of MSC’s Eagle service launch, increasing competition on the Australia/NZ–US East Coast trade.
- OOCL Brisbane–Fremantle coastal service: A new east–west option via inland landbridge and coastal connections from February.
What this means for you
Additional services improve optionality and resilience for east–west and transpacific movements, particularly during peak periods.
Trade Outlook
Global
Global trade growth remains positive but is moderating. The WTO Goods Trade Barometer eased to 101.8, indicating slower but still above-trend growth. Strong performance across developing economies continues, while higher tariffs, policy uncertainty and cooling transport indicators weigh on momentum.
Looking ahead to 2026, global trade growth is expected to decelerate further, with uneven performance across regions and sectors.
What this means for you
Trade volumes remain resilient, but planning assumptions should reflect slower growth, tighter margins, and increased exposure to policy and geopolitical risk.
Australia
Australia’s trade outlook for 2026 is steady but uneven. Resource export values are likely to soften as commodity prices retreat, while agriculture, fisheries and forestry are entering the year from a position of strength. Businesses continue to face rising costs, regulatory pressure and labour constraints, driving selective investment in technology and efficiency.
What this means for you
Expect resilient volumes but softer values. Cost control, supply chain visibility and efficiency gains will be critical to protecting margins.
ABF Cargo Reporting
- Sea cargo: 631,000 reports in November (↓26% YoY)
- Air cargo: 17.3 million reports (↑3% YoY)
- Total cargo: 17.9 million reports (↑2% YoY)
What this means for you
Airfreight continues to lift overall activity, while sea freight volumes remain subdued despite month-to-month stability.
Global Schedule Reliability & Port Congestion
Global schedule reliability slipped to 62.8% in December, with average delays exceeding five days. Congestion persists across West Africa, parts of Europe, and key Asian hubs due to weather, vessel bunching and infrastructure constraints.
What this means for you
Lead times remain stretched. Buffer stock, realistic transit planning and proactive communication remain critical.
Geopolitical Issues
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated across multiple regions, including the Middle East, the Black Sea, the Caribbean, and the Taiwan Strait. While these risks continue to disrupt shipping patterns, expanded vessel supply and increased competition are currently offsetting upward pressure on freight rates.
What this means for you
Geopolitical risk remains a structural feature of global logistics. Route planning, transit flexibility and contingency planning are essential.
Red Sea Update
Early signs of stabilisation are emerging, with some carriers cautiously resuming Suez transits. A phased return is the most likely scenario, with limited congestion risk but potential short-term volatility as schedules normalise.
What this means for you
Expect a cautious, uneven return to Suez routing. Rate impacts are likely to be mixed and temporary.
Sustainability & Regulation
The maritime sector enters 2026 under tighter emissions and reporting requirements, including IMO carbon intensity rules, FuelEU Maritime and expanded EU ETS coverage.
What this means for you
Compliance costs and reporting complexity are increasing. Sustainability is no longer optional—it is now a core operational requirement.
Airfreight Market Update
Global airfreight rates rose modestly to US$2.41/kg, while remaining below last year’s levels on major lanes. Australian inbound airfreight conditions are stable, with good space availability and reliable connections.
What this means for you
Airfreight remains a dependable option for time-sensitive cargo, with relatively predictable conditions into early 2026.
Terminals & Ports
Australia
Terminal performance across Australia remains mixed, with weather disruption, congestion and cost pressures continuing to affect reliability at key gateways.
Recent monitoring shows ongoing delays across major container terminals, broadly in line with conditions seen late last year. While most ports remain operational, congestion and landside constraints are continuing to impact vessel turnaround times and container availability.
Patrick Terminals
- Brisbane: delays approx. 1–2 days
- Fremantle: delays approx. 1–2 days
- Sydney: delays approx. 2–3 days
- Melbourne: delays approx. 1–2 days
DP World Terminals
- Brisbane: delays approx. 1–2 days
- Fremantle: delays approx. 1–2 days
- Sydney: delays approx. 2–3 days
- Melbourne: delays approx. 1–2 days
VICT (Melbourne): delays approx. 1.0 day
Flinders Adelaide Container Terminal (FACT): delays approx. 1–2 days
AAT: Brisbane, Port Kembla, Melbourne (Appleton Dock and Webb Dock): minimal delays
Exporters continue to face equipment shortages across several shipping lines, with 20GP, 20RF, 20FQ and particularly 40RF containers remaining in short supply in parts of the market.
In Western Australia, Fremantle Ports successfully completed all planned upgrades at H Berth during a scheduled shutdown in early January. The works were delivered safely and on time, strengthening berth infrastructure and reducing the risk of unplanned disruptions.
At a regulatory level, the ACCC has flagged the need for reform in Australia’s container stevedoring sector, citing record prices, profits and sharp growth in landside charges. The regulator has warned that these costs ultimately flow through to importers, exporters and households, and may warrant a policy or regulatory response.
New Zealand
Terminal conditions in New Zealand remain relatively consistent, though congestion and equipment availability continue to affect flows.
- Auckland: delays approx. 2–3 days
- Tauranga: delays approx. 2–3 days
- Napier: delays approx. 2–3 days
- Lyttelton: delays approx. 2–3 days
Service reliability across the Tasman continues to be impacted by adverse weather and port congestion, with service slides and port omissions still occurring on some New Zealand services as carriers work to recover vessel windows.
What this means for you
Terminal performance remains a critical pressure point in the supply chain. While most Australian and New Zealand ports are operating, persistent delays, equipment shortages and rising landside costs continue to affect end-to-end reliability and landed costs. Importers and exporters should allow additional buffer time at congested terminals, closely monitor equipment availability—particularly for refrigerated cargo—and factor higher terminal charges into cost planning for 2026.
Takeaway
Freight markets are transitioning from post-holiday softness into a more disciplined but volatile environment. While rates are easing, structural risks—from geopolitics to oversupply—remain firmly in play. Strategic planning, flexibility and strong carrier partnerships will be key to navigating the months ahead.
Need Help With Bookings or Routings?
If falling rates, blank sailings, or geopolitical uncertainty are impacting your supply chain, now is the time to review your freight strategy. Our team works with
Magellan Logistics provides freight and logistics services to Australian and New Zealand importers and exporters, including sea freight, air freight, customs clearance, and a digital freight portal, offering 24/7 visibility of all your shipments. Keeping customers informed about changing market conditions is crucial to our approach.
Our dedicated and professional team would be delighted to help your business to reduce risk, control costs, and improve reliability. If you have questions about the freight market update, please get in touch with one of our freight specialists or call us at AUS 1800 595 463 or NZ (09) 974 4818.
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About David Thatcher: David, founder of Magellan Logistics, has built a global career in freight forwarding. With international leadership experience and Harvard training, he remains committed to client needs and nurturing his team.
Sources: With thanks to the Freight and Trade Alliance for their freight market update.
