Freight Market Update

TL;DR: Global Freight Market Update October 2025: Spot rates keep easing (Drewry WCI US$1,913/FEU, -6% WoW; 14th drop); SHA lanes -4% to -11%. Intra-Asia index US$611/FEU (+5% WoW, -9% YoY); near-term stable. Australia: China→AU ~US$2,518/FEU; from 15 Oct COSCO/ANL/MSC R/R US$300/TEU, US$600/FEU; ANL & CMA CGM booking fees (AU 15 Oct; NZ scrap-metal 1 Oct). Risks: Red Sea strikes/sanctions, Poland–Belarus rail closures, Taiwan Strait tensions; weigh Cape vs rail routings, re-screen counterparties. US: USTR port fees 14 Oct on China-built/owned vessels → Transpac swaps; prints USWC US$2,322/FEU, USEC US$3,190/FEU. Reliability: On-time 65.2%, avg delay 4.68d; Typhoon Ragasa → add 5–7 days on South China. Cancellations: ~11% global (wks 39–43); AU ~8%. Congestion: multiple global hubs; AU/NZ mild-to-moderate delays. Equipment: AU exporters are in short supply of 20GP/20RF/20FQ/40RF. Airfreight: India→US softer post-tariffs; SYD capacity rising; peak space—book early. Sustainability/policy: IMO net-zero path, Panama NetZero slot; keep contracts flexible, add regulatory pass-throughs, lock rail/air options, and build buffers into Q4–Q1.

Global shipping conditions remain challenging, with rates, services, and supply chain risks continuing to fluctuate weekly. We’re seeing softer demand and extra vessel capacity keeping downward pressure on spot rates, while new tariffs, weather events, and geopolitical tensions add further uncertainty. In Australia and New Zealand, additional rate increases, booking fees, and equipment shortages are starting to impact planning. At the same time, sustainability rules and infrastructure changes are shaping how supply chains will operate in the years ahead. This freight market update highlights the key developments you should be aware of to help you plan with confidence and minimise disruption.

Rates & Services

Global Ocean Rates

Drewry WCI ↓6% WoW to US$1,913/FEU (14th weekly drop).
Key lanes: SHA–LAX -4%, SHA–NYC -5%, SHA–RTM -11%, SHA–GOA -9%.
Drivers: Extra capacity + softer demand; more easing into Golden Week.
Outlook: Weak supply–demand through late-2025; US actions on China-built/owned ships could reshape capacity.

Intra-Asia

Index +5% to US$611/FEU, still -9% YoY; broadly stable near term.

Australia

China→AU spot ~US$2,518/FEU, easing despite blankings.
From 15 Oct: COSCO/ANL/MSC rate restoration US$300/TEU, US$600/FEU (Asia→AU).
Booking fees (ANL & CMA CGM):
- AU (15 Oct 2025): US$120/ctr if cancelled/rolled/reduced within 10 days of cut-off.
- NZ (1 Oct): NZ$150/unit for scrap-metal exports cancelled/rolled/reduced within 5 days of ETD.
Service changes:
- MSC Eagle: Wellington added from Feb 2026 (AU/NZ ↔ USEC).
- OOCL Sydney inland: ICD Yennora joins Moorebank/Enfield for daily rail to Botany.

What this means for you

Secure space early on Asia–AU; expect selective RR/GRI.
Double-check cut-off windows to avoid new booking fees.
Consider NZ via Wellington once MSC Eagle starts.

Trade Outlook

Global

H1-2025 trade grew (intra-East Asia + resilient US demand), but tariff shifts and new rules keep volatility elevated. Larger fleets help, but raw material competition and policy changes add risk.

Australia

Mixed. Commodities support growth; weaker investment and slower key partners are headwinds.
In the longer term, diversification is needed as fossil-fuel values trend lower.
Agriculture: Livestock exports near record highs → tight capacity late-2025.

Reliability & Weather

On-time arrivals: 65.2% (↓ MoM), +13 pp YoY; average late-arrival delay 4.68 days.
South China (Typhoon Ragasa): Shekou 4–5 days, Yantian 5–7, Nansha 3–4; knock-ons at HK, Kaohsiung, Keelung, Haiphong.
Europe: Weather + maintenance (Rotterdam/Bremerhaven), Koper yard density, and Slovenia rail constraints.

What this means for you

Add 5–7 days for South China routings; pull bookings forward; consider split/mode shifts.
Contract for Diversion/Recovery Cost Protection.

Port Congestion (Selected Hotspots)

Abidjan ~4d; Cape Town ~5.5d; Durban ~2.25d (rail/landside).
China (SHA/NGB/TAO) 1.36–2.25d; Shenzhen customs delays up to 2 weeks.
Port Klang ~1.21d (yard 88%); HCMC ~1.95d (yard 96%).
Rotterdam ~1.38d (maintenance). Southampton ~1.8d (yard 91% dry / 57% reefers).
Canada: Rail dwell 5–8d (worst: Montreal). US: Variable; Houston ~11d.

Closer to Home (AU/NZ)

Sydney & Fremantle: 24–48 hr waits (weather + congestion).
Brisbane/Melbourne/Adelaide: Minor delays; vessels queuing.
NZ: AKL, Lyttelton, Nelson, Tauranga, Napier, Port Chalmers, Timaru = longer turnarounds.

Key driver: Adverse weather pushing vessels off-window → bunching.

Cancellations (Blank Sailings)

Global (wks 39–43)

~11% of sailings cancelled; Transpac 53%, Asia–EU/Med 31%, TA westbound 16%; 68% around Golden Week.
~89% of departures still sail; carriers plan +~100k TEU capacity in Oct vs Sep (despite soft rates).

Australia

17/221 blanked this month (~8%) vs 4% last month (6/153); partly Golden Week-related.

What this means for you

Use shorter terms, monitor tariff headlines, and secure space early—especially eastbound Transpac.

Geopolitics – At a Glance

Poland–Belarus closures: Disrupting China–EU rail; slower/costlier modes.
Taiwan Strait & Scarborough Shoal: Higher risk on key corridors.
Nepal instability: Possible South Asia cross-border impacts.

Red Sea & Routing

Security edges north: Houthi attack on 20k dwt Scarlet Ray (no damage) marks northernmost incident to date.
Claimed MSC Aby strike: Ship arrived safely 2 Sep; verification mixed.
Sanctions: OFAC listed 32 parties (and four vessels) tied to Houthi financing—re-screen counterparties.
Alternatives: Chongqing overland to the EU can save ~10–20 days; Algoa Bay bunkering adds capacity for Cape routings.

What this means for you

Weigh Cape vs rail-to-EU for urgent cargo; build buffers; confirm sanctions screening.

US Freight Market Update

USTR fees (effective 14 Oct, 2025): Charges for China-built/owned ships at US ports; 180-day grace period. COSCO/OOCL is the most exposed; Transpac redeployments are ongoing.
LNG carriage rules: Possible easing to address cost/capacity.
Rates check: USWC ~US$2,322/FEU, USEC ~US$3,190/FEU. CMA CGM: ready; no USTR surcharge planned.

What this means for you

Expect rotation tweaks/blankings; add Q4–Q1 buffers; ensure regulatory pass-through clauses in contracts.

Competitive Landscape

Intra-Asia: Maersk +~100k TEU YoY; closing on COSCO; Gemini boosts Hapag-Lloyd.
UK intermodal: CMA CGM ↔ Freightliner UK expands rail-sea options.
COSCO logistics: RMB 1bn Yantian smart hub + PSA Tuas partnership.

Sustainability & Policy

IMO Net-Zero (vote Oct 2025): Net-zero by 2050; milestones -20% by 2030, -70% by 2040; Global Fuel Standard (from 2027, >5,000 GT); RUs/SUs and a Net-Zero Trust Fund; well-to-wake accounting.
Panama Canal NetZero Slot: Weekly low-emission slot (24-hr guaranteed transit).
Port of Long Beach (Pier B): Truck-free, on-dock rail expansion to triple capacity.

Equipment (AU)

Tight availability persists—20GP, 20RF, 40RF hardest to secure.
Action: Forward-plan and place equipment holds early.

Rail & Intermodal (AU)

Patrick Sydney AutoRail: A$190m automated terminal; 250k → 1m+ TEU/yr; ~900 trucks/day off roads; ~5,400 t CO₂/yr cut.
Arc Infrastructure (WA): 110-hr shutdown; 30+ work sites → reliability/safety uplift.
Kenwick Intermodal (WA): Year-1 208k+ TEU; ~141k truck trips removed; rail share near 30%.
MEDLOG Minto (NSW): ECP live 22 Sep; intermodal 29 Sep; CargoWise/Inbound Connect VBS.

What this means for you

Expect improved landside flows in NSW/WA and better ECP turn times.

Global Air Freight Market Update

Flows: India→US -8% WoW (wk 37), -14% vs 3-mo avg; India→EU steady; Dubai→US -37% vs Jul–Aug avg; global tonnages +2% WoW (NA +11%, APAC +2%).
Sydney (Menzies): Third cargo warehouse adds 5,000 m² and lifts SYD capacity to ~250k t/yr.
Network (2026): New BNE–ZQN; more BNE–AKL; QF A220 on BNE–WLG; 44 seasonal PER–Rome flights.
Outlook: Demand ~+4% CAGR to 2030 vs freighter fleet <+1% → structural tightness.
Digital: IATA ONE Record becomes the preferred standard as of 1 Jan, 2026.

What this means for you

Re-route India–US via EU/Middle East where viable; lock peak space early; align with handlers on ONE Record readiness.

Terminals & Ports

CPPI 2025: East Asia leads (China’s Yangshan #1); movers include Senegal, India, Türkiye, Egypt, Ecuador; US ports lag (best: Philadelphia #26).
Deals/expansions: PSA Singapore×COSCO Tuas hub (2027); DP World–Montreal Contrecœur (1.15m TEU, full ops 2030); COSCO stakes at Laem Chabang; PSA Mumbai to 4.8m TEU; APM–Andhra Pradesh US$1bn MoU.
Australia: VICT protest paused landside operations for ~3 hours (15 Sep); operations are now normal. Port of Melbourne FY25: A$154bn trade, 3.39m TEU (record).

Terminal delays snapshot (AU/NZ)

Patrick: BNE/FRE/SYD/MEL ~1–2 days.
DP World: BNE/FRE/SYD/MEL ~1–2 days (BNE outages noted).
VICT (MEL): ~0.5 day. FACT (ADL): ~1–2 days.
AAT: BNE/PK/MEL sites have minimal delays.
NZ: AKL 0.5–1d; TRG 0.5–1d; NPE/LYT 1–2d.

Need help right now?

Urgent cargo? We can split loads, shift modes, or re-route via Cape/Rail-EU.
Booking pressure? We’ll secure equipment and space and protect your cut-offs.

Talk to Magellan’s team to firm up routings and holds for your next sailings and uplift.

Magellan Logistics provides freight and logistics services to all industries, including sea freight, air freight, customs clearance, and a digital freight portal, offering 24/7 visibility of all your shipments. Keeping customers informed about changing market conditions is crucial to our approach.

Our dedicated and professional team would be delighted to assist your business. If you have questions about the freight market update, please get in touch with one of our freight specialists or call us at AUS 1800 595 463 or NZ (09) 974 4818.

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About David Thatcher: David, founder of Magellan Logistics, has built a global career in freight forwarding. With international leadership experience and Harvard training, he remains committed to client needs and nurturing his team.

Sources: With thanks to the Freight and Trade Alliance for their freight market update.