Freight Market Update

TL;DR: Rates: Global Freight Market Update December 2025:

Rates: WCI steady; Transpac ↓, Asia–Europe ↑; Intra-Asia rebounding.
Reliability: Global on-time 61.4%; typhoons and industrial action add delays.
Capacity: Blank sailings ease to ~7% of departures (next five weeks) as carriers add slots.
AU/NZ: 24–48 hr waits at Sydney/Fremantle; NZ delays 2–3 days at key ports.
Airfreight: Peak season lift from APAC; India→US weaker on tariffs; global tonnage ↑.
Geopolitics: Red Sea reopening signs, Arctic/NSR tests, sanctions compliance still critical.
What to do: Book early, split critical loads, add buffers ex-South China/NZ, secure equipment, and re-screen suppliers/vessels.

A clear-eyed freight market update to help you plan peak-season movements with confidence. Ocean spot rates are mixed, schedule reliability has softened month-on-month, and blank sailings remain a key lever even as capacity creeps up. Closer to home, AU/NZ ports continue to manage weather-driven bunching while equipment remains tight for some export boxes. Airfreight is firming into year-end with Asia Pacific demand leading.

Rates & Services

Global Ocean Rates

WCI: Steady at US$1,852/FEU as Transpac softness was offset by Asia–Europe strength.
Transpac spot: SHA–LAX US$2,172/FEU (-7%); SHA–NYC US$2,922/FEU (-10%). Fewer blankings next week may add downward pressure.
Asia–Europe spot: SHA–RTM US$2,193/FEU (+8%); SHA–GOA US$2,319/FEU (+6%). Carriers filing FAK US$3,100–4,000/FEU from 1 Dec ahead of contract season.
Outlook: If normal Suez transits resume, global spot could face renewed pressure.

Drewry Intra-Asia Index

US$630/FEU (+24% in a fortnight) from a low of US$487—demand rebound + tighter capacity. Expect volatility as carriers rebalance ahead of peak intra-Asia flows.

Australia

Hapag-Lloyd: FAK increases ex North Europe/Med → AU effective 15 Nov.
ANL: US$300/TEU / US$600/FEU RR ex North East Asia → AU from 1 Dec; China→ECAU spot currently <US$2,000/FEU (14 free days) to mid-Dec.
ANL & CMA CGM (from 1 Dec): One rollover allowed before cutoff; further rollovers declined. Dry exports not collected after cutoff will be cancelled (exclusions apply).
Extra loaders: TS Lines (TS Jakarta mid-Dec), ANL (two trans-Tasman extras), PIL (Kota Nekad) calling Botany/Melbourne. Expect ongoing omissions/rotation changes due to congestion/weather.

New Zealand – Lyttelton capacity

Coastal bookings suspended; affected cargo rolls forward. Maersk congestion fee NZ$200/ctr from 1 Dec (15 Dec regulated markets).

What this means for you

Secure space early on Asia–EU and Asia–AU lanes; expect selective RR/GRIs.
Minimise fees: Keep a tight eye on cutoffs/rollover rules (ANL/CMA CGM).
Schedules: Monitor for late changes and port omissions; consider trans-Tasman contingencies.

Trade Outlook

Global

Global GDP: Upward revisions for 2025–26; China now 5.0% (2025) then 4.6%/4.5%, supporting exports. Slower outlooks flagged for Brazil, Russia, UK.
US: Shutdown ended; CPI moderating; PMI expansion continues; labour market cooling from tight levels.
Policy backdrop: Tariff uncertainty remains; EU fiscal questions linger.

What this means for you

Expect volatile activity as policy and inflation paths evolve.
China’s growth offers a regional tailwind to exports.
Keep watching CPI, policy headlines and capacity signals to pre-empt disruption.

Australia

Growth steady through late-2025 into 2026; labour market still tight; inflation easing.
Partners (China/US/East Asia) likely to slow in 2025–26, but conditions are more resilient than feared.
Exports: Mining volumes steady (no major new capacity); services (students) stabilising.
Prices: Softer global demand → downward pressure on import prices.
Freight demand: Slightly softer possible into 2026.

What this means for you

Plan for stability, not surge: Good for pricing discipline and network planning.
Cost control: Inflation higher-for-longer—lock rates where sensible; watch wage-linked costs.
Diversify: Explore non-fossil export opportunities and resilient services lanes.

ABF Cargo Reporting (October 2025)

Sea cargo reports: 682k (+13k MoM, -44% YoY).
Air cargo reports: 15.8m (+2.4m MoM, +2% YoY).
Total: 16.5m (+2.4m MoM, -1% YoY).
Context: YoY comps skewed by exceptional 2024; October sits among the stronger historical prints.

Port Congestion (Selected Hotspots)

Africa: Conakry 17–30 d; Beira 15.4 d; Dar es Salaam 6.7 d (easing by late Dec); Douala 4.2 d; Mombasa 4+ d.
Middle East & India: Generally stable; Chittagong 1.8 d (strike 1 Nov); Mundra/Nhava Sheva <1 d.
Asia & Oceania: Mostly manageable; Shekou 1.3 d; Xiamen 2.1 d; Manila 2 d post-storm.
Europe: Valencia 3.2 d; UK 1.5–2.0 d; Hamburg 1.2 d (works); Zeebrugge ~2+ d amid strikes.
Americas: Mobile 4.6 d; Seattle/Tacoma 2 d; Vancouver 7–9 d dwell; Houston 9–10 d dwell; NY/NJ 4 d; Mexico disruptions intermittent.

Cancellations (Blank Sailings)

Global (wks 48–52)

48/719 sailings cancelled (~7%). Breakdown: TP eastbound 48%, Asia–EU/Med 29%, TA westbound 23%. 93% of services still sail.
Nov: 81 blankings (down from 96 Oct) → +~4% MoM capacity. Dec: capacity projected +9% with only 35 blankings announced so far.

Australia

10/176 blankings (~6%) vs ~8% last month—gradual easing as carriers balance supply vs soft demand.

What this means for you

Keep shorter terms, monitor advisories, and lock space early on sensitive weeks.

Global Schedule Reliability

October 2025: 61.4% on-time (-3.5 pp MoM, +11.1 pp YoY); average late delay 4.98 days (still 0.87 days better YoY).
Top carriers: Maersk 74.1%, Hapag-Lloyd 69.6%, MSC 65.9%, PIL 44.9%.
Weather/industrial action: Typhoons across SE Asia; Lyttelton industrial action adds NZ delays.
East Africa: Severe weather + congestion (e.g., Conakry waits up to 30 days).

What this means for you

Add 5–7 days buffer ex-South China/NZ; split loads and consider mode shifts for critical SKUs.

Geopolitics – Supply Chain Watch

Arctic competition & NSR tests: NATO drills, US–Finland icebreaker program and China’s scheduled NSR container service point to a seasonal alternative to Suez/Panama—alongside sanctions & environmental risk.

South China Sea tensions: Post-patrol rhetoric remains heated; the corridor carries US$3T+ trade. Expect insurance/routing vigilance.

Dark/grey fleets & false flags: Sanctioned dark-fleet activity up; grey-fleet flows persist; false-flag registrations +22% QoQ—raising safety/insurance/compliance risk.

What this means for you

Re-screen vessels, flags and counterparties; maintain KYC/AML hygiene.
Build flexible routings and insurance headroom into plans.

Red Sea Update

Anniversary: Galaxy Leader hijacking (Nov 2023) remembered; crew released Jan 2025.
Pause: Houthis announced a suspension of maritime attacks; risks reduced, not removed.
Trial transits: CMA CGM testing Suez/Red Sea passages; SCA signalling readiness; phased returns likely as insurance normalises.
New incident: Talara tanker seized off UAE—reminder that risks are shifting, not gone.

What this means for you

Phase-in planning: Use Cape detours or overland rail options as bridges back to Suez.
Stagger sailings to avoid bunching on resumption; plan for port congestion as flows normalise.

US Freight Market Update

US–China truce: Threatened 100% tariff averted; partial tariff cuts, export-control pauses, soybean buys and fentanyl cooperation agreed.
Port fees: One-year pause on new US fees for China-built/owned/flagged vessels.
Shipbuilding: Senate hearings push Jones Act, VCM and SHIPS for America; emphasis on domestic maritime capacity.
Government: US re-opened after 43-day shutdown (funding to 30 Jan 2026).
Imports: NRF sees monthly imports <2m TEU into early 2026.

What this means for you

Contracts: Use the truce window to lock predictable terms; add regulatory pass-through language.
Demand: Model softer US import volumes in Q1; balance inventory risk vs cost.

Competitive Landscape

Macquarie ↔ Qube: A$11.6bn proposal for the ASX-listed logistics group; due diligence to 1 Feb.
FMC enforcement: US$1.35m in penalties underscores tighter billing/tariff compliance.

What this means for you

Expect more intermodal options over time; keep tariff documentation tight.

Sustainability & Policy

EU shipping emissions: Record 2024 prints; ETS compliance 99%.
Bell Bay (Tas): TasPorts × H2U MoU on large-scale green H₂/NH₃ hub.
IMO NZF delay concerns: Calls for transparency; carriers broadly supportive, bulk hesitant.
Shore power: ONE rolls out at Shenzhen; CA ports approve a five-year zero-emissions plan.
NSW Ports: Net zero Scope 1 & 2 across Botany/Kembla/Enfield.

What this means for you

Expect more green surcharges/incentives; engage suppliers on shore power/fuel choices and ETS pass-throughs.

Equipment

Export equipment remains tight for 20GP, 20RF, 20FQ, 40RF on several lines.

What this means for you

Forward plan container holds; keep ready dates realistic and allow for substitutions.

Air Freight Market Update

Global

Peak lift: APAC spot US$4.11/kg (+4% WoW); APAC→US US$5.51/kg (+4% WoW); YoY still lower on some lanes.
Southeast Asia: US demand for semis/electronics → +40% YoY (Oct) and +26% YTD growth to US.
Operational: UPS MD-11 crash prompts FAA grounding; expect parcel delays.
Western Sydney International: First jet lands in emergency exercise; cargo hub expected to boost SYD capacity ~33% from 2026.

What this means for you

Lock uplift early for high-tech/retail SKUs; build bypass options during US parcel disruptions.
Consider WSI in medium-term AU air network planning.

Terminals & Ports

Global

APM Terminals: Expansions from Chattogram (Laldia) to East Port Said, Callao, Fredericia, Pipavav—capacity and electrification gains.
Dar es Salaam: Reopened post-unrest.
Jeddah T4: CMA CGM × RSGT plan US$450m expansion.
Latakia: AD Ports takes 20% stake alongside CMA CGM.
Nador West Med (Morocco): CMA CGM × Marsa Maroc partner on 1.8m TEU terminal (from 2027).

Australia and New Zealand

Lyttelton: Industrial action—delays and surcharges; uncertainty into Feb 2026.
Newcastle: Climate protest preparations; port to uphold lawful access.
TasPorts: Strong results; major project progress (Devonport, Macquarie, Bell Bay, Bass Strait RET).
Stevedore fee hikes (1 Jan 2026): Patrick/DPW/VICT/FACT +5–15% (DPW Fremantle >45%).

Terminal delays snapshot (AU/NZ)

Patrick: BNE/FRE/SYD/MEL ~1–2 d.
DP World: BNE ~2–3 d (outages), FRE/SYD ~2–3 d, MEL ~1–2 d.
VICT (MEL): ~1.0 d; FACT (ADL): ~1–2 d.
AAT: BNE/PK/MEL (Appleton/Webb) minimal.
NZ: AKL/TRG/NPE/LYT ~2–3 d.

What this means for you

Build port buffer into planning and consider alt terminals/rail where possible.
Budget for TAC/ancillary fee uplifts in 2026.

Need Help With Bookings or Routings?

We can help you secure space and equipment, design Cape vs Suez vs rail workarounds, and re-screen vessels and partners.

Talk to Magellan to lock in your December–January plan.

Magellan Logistics provides freight and logistics services to all industries, including sea freight, air freight, customs clearance, and a digital freight portal, offering 24/7 visibility of all your shipments. Keeping customers informed about changing market conditions is crucial to our approach.

Our dedicated and professional team would be delighted to assist your business. If you have questions about the freight market update, please get in touch with one of our freight specialists or call us at AUS 1800 595 463 or NZ (09) 974 4818.

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About David Thatcher: David, founder of Magellan Logistics, has built a global career in freight forwarding. With international leadership experience and Harvard training, he remains committed to client needs and nurturing his team.

Sources: With thanks to the Freight and Trade Alliance for their freight market update.