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The State of Global Fashion 2017 – Uncertain, Changing and Challenging

Looking back at 2016 — one of the toughest years on record for global fashion

As fashion executives around the world reported in the first BoF-McKinsey Global Fashion Survey, 2016 can be summarised in three words: uncertain, changing, and challenging.

Indeed, this has been one of the toughest years ever for the global fashion industry. Terrorist attacks in France, the Brexit vote in the UK, and the volatility of the Chinese stock market have created shocks to the global economy, which has not been this volatile since the depths of the financial crisis of 2009. Meanwhile, consumers have become more demanding, more discerning, and less predictable in their purchasing behaviour, which is being radically reshaped by new technologies. But the shockwaves have not only been external. Fashion companies have also been looking inward, implementing changes to their core operations—from shortening the length of the fashion cycle to integrating sustainable innovation into their core product design and manufacturing processes—re-evaluating the entire fashion system itself.

Perhaps unsurprisingly then, 67 percent of the executives surveyed reported that conditions for the global fashion industry have worsened over the past 12 months, a fact that is clearly borne out in the industry’s financial performance this year. Sales growth is on track to slow to just 2–3 percent by the end of 2016, with stagnating profit margins. Speculation and uncertainty over the impact of the outcome of the election in the United States could further impact sales if consumer sentiment dampens. This is in stark contrast to the fashion industry’s performance over the previous decade, which saw the industry grow at 5.5 percent annually according to the McKinsey Global Fashion Index, outpacing overall GDP growth.3

It is important to note that industry performance in 2016 has not been even across all market segments and categories. This year was particularly difficult for the luxury and mid-market players, who were hit by the slowdown in China and the US and are expected to grow at rates below the industry average at 0.5-1% and 2-2.5%, respectively. One category that is experiencing significant deceleration is watches and jewellery. While it was the fastest growing category between 2005 and 2015 – having enjoyed a compounded growth rate of 11% according to the MGFI –watches and jewellery is expected to grow just 1.5-2% this year. The luxury end of the category suffered an especially hard blow.

But in spite of these and other challenging circumstances, fashion remains one of the key value-creating industries for the world economy. If it were ranked alongside individual countries’ GDP the global fashion industry would represent the seventh-largest economy in the world.4

Moreover, 2016 also saw many exciting changes: the advance of digital, the launch of “see-now, buy-now”, and a thorough creative shake-up at fashion houses.

Outlook for 2017: Glimmers of recovery

In 2017 we expect the global fashion industry to see the glimmers of a rebound.

This recovery has several foundations. First macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth forecasts, are projected at 3.4 percent compared with 3.1 for 2016, however these have not been adjusted to reflect the ongoing impact of important political shifts in the United States and the United Kingdom.

Second, the investment community and the fashion brands themselves forecast improvement across the industry next year. Some 40 percent of executives we interviewed for this report expect conditions for the fashion industry to improve in 2017, compared with the 19 percent who reported

improving conditions in 2016. This is particularly true for the major players within each of the market segments and product categories. Many of them have already undertaken significant cost-cutting and restructuring exercises, and are now primed to capture the benefits. All things considered, we fashion industry growth could increase from 2–2.5 percent in 2016 to 2.5–3.5 percent in 2017, although the days when the industry outpaced GDP growth by more than 1–2 percentage points, as it has done over the past decade, seem to be over.

Performance will vary according to the individual dynamics of specific market segments and categories. Value and affordable luxury are likely to be the big winners, both outpacing the industry average at a projected 3.0-4.0 percent and 3.5–4.5 percent growth, respectively; however, all of the market segments—except for the discount market—should see a slight sales growth improvement of 0.5–1.5 percentage points.

Product categories are expected to grow in line with the overall industry average, but the biggest winners will be those companies with coherent channel strategies and clear value propositions. Athletic wear is positioned to be the absolute category winner, maintaining 6.5–7.5 percent sales growth, albeit no longer growing at a double-digit rate overall. The affordable luxury segment seems likely to continue benefitting from consumers “trading down” from luxury, while signs point to the continued growth of the value segment in line with the international expansion of large global players.

In short, the industry now has the opportunity to stabilise and reset. Next year’s success stories are most likely to come from those that are already planning for the year ahead. They should do this in the context of the following trends that we believe will shape the fashion industry in 2017.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT HERE

10 TRENDS THAT WILL DEFINE THE FASHION AGENDA IN 2017

INTENSIFYING VOLATILITY

Volatility is the new normal. Geopolitical instability, terrorism, Brexit, and stalled trade deals will all increase a pervasive sense of uncertainty in the global economy.

CHINA’S COMEBACK?

China’s fundamentals, including growth of the middle and upper classes, remain strong and the government’s new fiscal policies are expected to improve conditions in 2017, but uncertainty remains.

URBAN ENGINES

City-based strategies trump country-based strategies: a new class of rapidly growing wealthy cities in newly influential markets are becoming central to the evolution of fashion.

SHREWDER SHOPPERS

Working harder to keep up with smarter shoppers: “always-on” consumers are becoming ever more sophisticated, more technology-driven, and harder to predict.

GENERATION CORRELATION

Opportunities to serve the young and the old better: fashion companies should consider how to fine-tune and diversify the way they approach both retired and millennials consumers.

THE WELLNESS DIVIDEND

Feeling good is the new looking good: more fashion players can start profiting from the wellness movement rather than competing with it.

CHANGING THE RHYTHM

Disruptions to the fashion cycle: expectations set by the faster pace of fashion and consumer desire for instant gratification must be addressed to deliver fashion immediacy.

ORGANIC GROWTH

Investing more to nurture local clientele: 2017 has the potential to be the year of organic growth based on deeper relationships with existing clients rather than geographic, channel,and store network expansion.

UPSTREAM TECHNOLOGY

Digital innovation goes behind the scenes: digitisation is a key to supply-chain efficiency, lower procurement costs, and enhanced sourcing opportunities.

OWNERSHIP SHAKE-UP

Emotionless reappraisal of brand portfolios: fashion conglomerates can be expected to further intensify their focus on big brands, creating space for other brands and industry outsiders such as private equity and family owners to acquire targets.

The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company © 2016

DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT HERE

Source: McKinsey

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G20 Shanghai – why is China’s presidency so significant?

In 2016 the Group of Twenty (G20)*, finance leaders and government heads from the twenty major economic countries of the world, will meet in the ancient Chinese city of Hangzhou in the Eastern region of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). With world leaders like U.S. President Barack Obama and other Western dignitaries in attendance the eyes of the world will fall on this vast region of high tech and textile manufacturing near the Eastern coast. While the G20 is principally an economic forum the relationship between economics and climate change will be on show.

Textile Industry Closure

The Chinese government is considering temporarily closing the nearby Province of Zhejiang’s textile manufacturing to reduce air contamination during the G20 summit. This action could possibly idle over half of the textile dyeing industry in China.

While it is too early to say for sure whether the Government will order the shutdown, it has been rumoured that the closure could be three months in length, just before the beginning of the summit. Local government sources quickly stated that it would be impossible for a closure of that length to be achievable given the massive amount of goods that the region produces. Yet experts note that the situation would be quite an opportunity to show how much air pollution could be reduced within the province. This may prove a game changer for the entire region as Beijing had also made agreements during international climate talks in December 2015’s Paris Climate discussions.

China is still somewhat of a closed society for gauging public and international reaction, particularly when large scale events like closing down entire manufacturing regions are concerned. But, one can imagine that complete closure, even for a short period of time, will cause market and industrial disturbances on a significant scale. And it isn’t difficult to imaging the flow-on impact of these on the Australian TCF and retail industries.

China’s G20 Presidency

China’s G-20 presidency in 2016 is themed to help lay the groundwork for a world economy that is more “innovative, invigorated, interconnected, and inclusive.” and that office, China is set to become even more of a major player on the world’s financial and environmental stage.

China’s recent willingness to pursue trade agreements and the imminent inclusion of the reminbi in the group of currencies that determine the value of the IMF’s reserve asset, Special Drawing Rights, China’s capacity to help the world (especially emerging-market economies) cope with market volatility will be greatly enhanced.

This bodes well for China’s capacity to help counter the global slowdown in growth, trade, and investment. And not a moment too soon: The ongoing slowdown is among the greatest risks the world currently faces, because it could compound instability in already-fragile countries, while compelling more robust economies to turn inward, rather than address growing crises.

With a binding greenhouse gas agreement in the works at the United Nations, it behoves China to work within the framework of its own country to solve the issues that industrialisation has brought to the country. If closure of Zhejiang’s textile industry can demonstrate measurable environmental results and throw a spotlight on the problem, then it is possible, with help from other G-20 partners and technological advancement, that the PRC as a whole can work towards improving its air quality, as well as find new ways to grow their industrial might.

With the right mix of realism and power sharing, China’s G-20 presidency has the potential to catalyse important progress to strengthen the foundation of a new global economic structure for the twenty-first century … and to further underscore the importance of environmental commitments in the attainment of this.

*Collectively, the G-20 economies account for approximately 80% of the gross world product (GWP), 80 percent of world trade (including EU intra-trade), and two-thirds of the world population. They furthermore accounted for 84% of the world’s economic growth by nominal GDP from the years 2010 to 2016, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Sources and more information:
http://schema-root.org/region/international/government/g20/
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/16/c_134822759.htm
http://www.thechinamoneyreport.com/2016/01/02/china-in-2016-fewer-jobs-lower-consumer-confidence/
http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/12/how-will-china-use-its-g20-presidency/
http://www.chinatexnet.com/textile-news/2016-02-03/554832.html

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Supply chain: key to longevity in designer retail space

Supply Chain. In the recent October issue of Ragtrader, Magellan’s Joe Carbone shares some of his insights on how a close and consultative relationship with our clients has contributed to their success. Read the full article here – Ragtrader October pg16-18

Or get in touch with us via the web or call on 1300 651 888.

 

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Magellan Logistics lands in NZ

Magellan Logistics New Zealand Limited has officially opened it’s doors in Auckland, with Paul Knight appointed as Magellan’s New Zealand Manager.

Paul has over 30 years experience in the logistics and transportation industries in both New Zealand and internationally.

Paul’s experience covers a wide range of business development and sales management roles, having been exposed to most industries, including working with clients in the textiles, footwear and clothing markets, across both imports and exports.

His wealth of experience has positioned Paul to appreciate that freight forwarders do more than just move freight – they provide a service which impacts a client’s profits which is affected by timeliness of both response and delivery. Excellence in service has been the single most important factor in successfully looking after his clients.

We are very pleased to have Paul join the Magellan team and the positive and pro-active approach that he brings with him.

Magellan has recognised the opportunity within the New Zealand market to both broaden the current services to our existing Australian clients who ship from both Australian and overseas direct to New Zealand, as well as offering the same high service standards to New Zealand based businesses. Magellan envisions replicating the great success and growth experienced in Australia, in this new and exciting marketplace.

“The role will be challenging as well as satisfying and rewarding for all involved and especially clients looking for extraordinary service levels, in the freight forwarding industry”, Paul shares.

Our New Zealand office contact details:

Suite 5, Level 1, 75J Porana Road,
Wairau Valley, Auckland, NZ 0760

International Telephone:

+64 9 974 4818 or
+64 9 974 4817

International Facsimile:

+64 9 974 4819

Postal Address:

PO Box 316-024,
Wairau Valley Post Centre,
Wairau Valley, Auckland, NZ 0760

________

We extend a warm invitation for New Zealand specific enquiries. Please contact Paul directly at paul@maglog.co.nz  or in the office on +64 9 974 4818 or +64 9 974 4817, or via mobile on 021 497024.

Or alternatively, you can reach our customer service team in our Melbourne head office on info@maglog.com.au or 1300 651 888

We look forward to assisting our existing and future New Zealand based clients, and our Australian clients with their freight forwarding, customs clearance and 3PL needs into and out of New Zealand.

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Quality Control – Eliminate claims for non-compliant product

Traditionally, fashion companies have used buying agents or sourced resident teams to undertake quality control procedures at the manufacturer’s premises – either in-line or final quality control (Q/C).

However, this process has not always proved to be totally effective and product is often determined to be out of specification once it has arrived in Australia. Australian importers then need to engage in lengthy and costly discussions with their suppliers about who pays for what.

THERE IS A BETTER WAY AND MAGELLAN CAN HELP

Magellan can provide quality control facilities in its offshore warehouses that allow for detection of issues BEFORE the goods are exported. In the event of any non-compliance the goods are returned to the supplier for correction and re-delivery. This approach eliminates claims and the onus is put squarely on the supplier to get the product right BEFORE it leaves the country of manufacture.

Experience has shown that suppliers learn very quickly that if they deliver non-compliant product this will disadvantage them economically. It follows that self regulation becomes an imperative for them.

EXAMPLES OF QUALITY CONTROL PROCEDURES INCLUDE:

  • Needle detection
  • Button and stud testing
  • Swing Tag confirmation
  • Labelling confirmation
  • Thread snipping
  • Re-ticketing
  • Technical Q/C – (provided by client)

 

So, if you want to eliminate claims for non-compliant product in the future contact Jeff Kershaw at jeff@maglog.com.au or call on 0418 543 994.

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Prepare for import duty reductions now – effective 1st January 2015

5-percent-duty-rate-magellan-logistics

Further to our previous blog, this is a reminder that the duty reduction date is rapidly approaching us: 1st January 2015.

In essence, legislation was passed for a reduction to 5% in the general rate of Customs duty applicable to a range of  products, which in particular includes  garments, some home-wares and other made up textile articles that are imported into Australia from 1st January 2015.

If any goods that you import currently attracts a 10% rate of duty, that rate may now be reduced to 5%. Should you need clarification if your imported goods are subject to the duty reduction, please contact one of Magellan Logistics’ Customs Brokers on 1300 651 888.

If you have shipments planned to arrive towards the end of December 2014, and they are cleared before the 1st January 2015, then the current duty rate of 10% will apply.

Rather than delaying shipments until arrival after 1st January to gain benefit from the lower duty rates, we can assist by arranging to have your shipments held for a few extra days either in storage or “under bond”  (moved to a Customs approved warehouse/depot). The duty rate reduction will be applicable to any Customs declarations made on or after 1st January 2015, rather than on the date the shipment actually arrives in Australia.

Before making this commitment, we can assist in a costing exercise in weighing up the added storage, demurrage  & handling costs compared to the duty savings.

As this period will also impact over the traditional holiday close-downs for much of industry, storage is usually always at a premium across Australian ports. So if you intend to hold any of your shipments in storage for a short period to take advantage of the duty reductions, we suggest you let us know your plans as soon as possible, so we can make appropriate planning decisions in your best interests.

Please call 1300 351 888, email info@maglog.com.au, or contact one of our Customs Brokers or your Account Manager directly to further discuss the plans for this upcoming duty rate reduction.

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India Celebrates Diwali Festival of Lights on 21st October 2014

Importers of Indian goods encouraged to plan ahead

Diwali, the happiest and grandest celebration in India, signifies the start of the Hindu New Year. It celebrates the victory of good over evil, brightness over darkness.

Literally the festival of lights, Diwali is celebrated by illuminating the whole country with small clay lamps (diyas) and candles, with fireworks being set off everywhere.

diwali-festival-india-freight-forwarding-magellan

Diwali is derived from the Sanskrit words dipa (“light” or “lamp”) and avali (“series, line, row”). Dipavali or Deepavalli thus means a series of lights. A variation of spelling and pronunciation depends on the diverse languages of India, where the popular variation is Diwali.

Diwali is a five day festival that usually falls in October or November, depending on the cycle of the moon. This year Diwali begins on October 21st 2014.

The main festivities take place on the third day and the fourth day is celebrated as New Year’s Day. The fifth and last day is celebrated by family getting together, sharing food, and honouring the bond between them.

Diwali is an important celebration for Hindus and is celebrated all over India, with exception to the state of Kerala where the festival is not widely celebrated. According to IMRB, market research firm in India, 91% of Indians celebrate Diwali, making it the biggest celebration in the country.

The grand celebration creates an opportunity for retailers and consumer goods producers to increase sales domestically. Factories and manufacturers typically double their output in the weeks and months prior to Diwali, as both local and export spending increases prior to the festival.

Planning for surge in demand

Within India, logistics service providers usually see an increase in volumes prior to the Diwali season, with a surge in movement of apparel, consumer goods and automobiles.

The textile and clothing industry for instance, where India is a significant player, boost output in the weeks leading up to Diwali, as export demands increase dramatically. To allow for this surge in demand and possible backlog, importers of Indian manufactured goods are encouraged to plan ahead to minimise possible delays.

Talk to Magellan Logistics today to plan your Indian imported goods shipments in advance.

Call 1300 351 888, email info@maglog.com.au or speak with your account manager directly.

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Magellan Logistics featured in Ragtrader Magazine, September 2014

Read the latest power brokers article where our sales director, Joe Carbone, shares his knowledge and experience on the supply chain.

Let us know your feedback in the comments.

(Hit CTRL + to zoom in)

ragtrader-sept-2014-magellan-logistics-joe-carbone ragtrader-sept-2014-magellan-logistics-joe-carbone ragtrader-sept-2014-magellan-logistics-joe-carbone ragtrader-sept-2014-magellan-logistics-joe-carbone

 

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Duty Rate Reduction to 5% for Australian Garment Imports from Jan 1st 2015.

5-percentPositive news for Australian garment importers as legislation passes to reduce duty rate for goods shipments into Australia from January 1, 2015.

The result is a reduction in the general rate of customs duty applicable to a range of garments, homewares and other madeup textile articles, to 5% from January 1, 2015.

For local fashion importers, the news presents a tangible, practical way to reduce expenses and increase profits – a shot in the arm for the fashion retail industry.

 Plan end-of-year shipments & capitalise – ask Magellan Logistics

A little forward planning can be a profitable thing.

If your garment shipment arrives towards the end of December, 2014, you’ll slide in ahead of the potential savings. But ask our experienced team at Magellan Logistics to help and you can arrange to have your fashion freight shipment held for a few extra days so your business can benefit from the duty reduction on (and after) January 1, 2015. You will need, of course, to factor in demurrage and storage fees…BUT, with our Magellan Logistics’ staff on hand to help you crunch the numbers, together we’ll find the most cost-effective way to handle your garment imports.

It’s important to understand that, in your quest to reduce duty costs, you will not be alone. To ensure your business stays ahead of your competition, it will pay to plan for the potential backlog caused by other fashion importers who want to take advantage of post-January 1 deliveries.

Talk to Magellan Logistics today.

We’re here to help you find the garment freight solution that will help your business ship cost effectively.

Call 1300 351 888 or email info@maglog.com.au to further discuss the upcoming duty rate reduction.

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Magellan launches Moving Stylish Fashion Fast Campaign

Check us OUT!

Magellan Logistics are thrilled to be included in the latest Ragtrader magazine August edition, alongside influential fashion powerhouses. We have been serving our fashion, textiles, retail and footwear clients for the past 17 years, and it’s feels great to share our brand with the rest of the fashion world.

Let us know what you think!ragtrader-magellan-august-edition-logisticsragtrader-magellan-august-edition-logistics

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